Red Alert: The 2012 Offseason QB Scramble

Of course, my first official long form article for the Two Bit site clearly has to be about NFL QBs, right? It is a little too early to write the NFL QB Value Rankings (which by the way, we had Eli Manning at number four and ahead of Tom Brady around week four of last year while all the "experts" were knocking him for calling himself "Elite"). Suck it "Experts". Suck it long and hard! Ooo, yeah, experts!

Instead, I am rating and then ranking each NFL team's QB position as of right this minute (9:26 AM on Friday, February 24 in case you care) in an effort to predict what moves teams are likely to make and who the starting QB will be for each team (barring injury) on kickoff weekend 2012. And then, most importantly, what is the coming fate of the big QB dominoes (the QB moves that will start other dominoes to fall) like Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn and the rookies, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.

To begin, I made a list of each team's QB of the moment and sometimes included the backup when appropriate (see picture of my handwritten notes). Then I ranked each team based on my preception of their satisfaction with their QB (a quick 1-5 grade) to see what the big picture of the league really is.

My grades are as follows:

5. The QB is locked in as the starter and nothing short of a godfather type offer would even be considered before being rudely rejected (think Aaron Rodgers).

4. It would be tough for the team to make a change but they aren't completely locked into the guy either (think Michael Vick).

3. The team is would be open to making a change if the right opportunity was presented but it rather unlikely (think Timmy Tebow).

2. The team is actively looking for (or at least should be looking for) an upgrade at QB but may be a year away from making the move (think Blaine Gabbert).

1. Teams that are definitely going to have a new QB next year (think Colts and Peyton Manning).

My first thoughts are how many teams are actually pretty set at QB. I have fourteen teams rated at a five (Nearly half of the league!). Remember this isn't totally a QB ranking, just a rating of how satisfied teams are with their current QB situation and therefore the likelihood that they will make a change at QB or draft a QB to start next year. Fives are not going to be involved in the QB carasol and therefore we aren't going to spend much time on them. The four teams that I have rated as ones are the teams that are almost certainly going to make a change at QB.

The Fives

Brady, Big Ben, Flacco, Dalton, Schaub, Rivers, Eli, Rodgers, Cutler, Stafford, Brees, Ryan, Newton and Freeman. Of the group, only Brady is in what most would consider the autumn of their career but it seems safe to say he has five good years left in him. In fact, I could see him outlasting at least half of this list of guys with their current teams. Will Brady be a Patriot longer than Schaub, Flacco, Cutler or Freeman remain with their teams?

A couple of interesting things could happen with this group that could affect the coming season. First, Matt Flynn will likely be the most coveted free agent QBs. The Packers could franchise him with the intention of trading him. With the Dolphins new coach, Joe Philbin having not only the best knowledge of Flynn's ability but also the closest relationship to the Packer organization, is there already some negotiation in the works? A trade would cost the Dolphins some assets but would greatly lower Flynn's leverage in contract negotiations. If Flynn hits the free agent market, multiple bidders could drive up his purchase price.

Similiarly, the Patriot's Bobby Hoyer could be a quieter, lower cost version of the Matt Flynn. Hoyer is not likely a starter next year however.

The Fours

Vick, Romo, Bradford and Smith. The fours are the group that Mr. Armstrong will certainly be critical of with his common cat call that I am predicting both rain and no rain but, whatever. Screw you. These guys are franchise guys who are in a "prove it" type of season. Next year these guys could be reestablish themselves as long term franchise type guys or their teams could be in the market for a new starting QB. Am I wishy washy on these guys? I don't care. Screw you. If they perform well, stay healthy and make a playoff run, they will be seriously elevated. They could be next season's version of Eli Manning.

Everyone is questioning their ability to win the big one but if they do then everyone (Note: for future reference "everyone" generally means the main stream sports media, primarily the talking heads on ESPN, who can praise someone on Saturday and crush them on Sunday night) will be asking stupid @ss questions like, "does this one solo win mean that Eli has surpassed his Hall of Fame brother's 14 year career?" or "I always knew Alex Smith had it in him....it was just a question of having confidence...what? The Niners lost? I always knew that Alex Smith couldn't win the big one."

I can't put these guys at fives because I think their teams are more reluctantly committed to them and could quickly change direction if things don' go so well next year. Romo and Vick have made long careers of looking incredible and gaining great respect in the league despite mostly mediocre results. Another non-playoff year and I think both the Eagles and Cowboys make a change. Bradford is a young guy that most people agree should be a franchise QB but take away his college resume, drafted first overall and his hefty contract and would the Rams be committed to him? Has he earned his status with his play on the field? Probably not, but he was the first overall pick a few years ago and still has great potential so he still gets rated a four.

Alex Smith. Smitty? There isn't a starting QB in the NFL that I would rate below Alex Smith. Well, maybe Tebow. But after last year's success and how close the Niners were to the Super Bowl, you have to assume the Niners bring back the Shitter. I don't believe in any way that the Niners success last year was due to do a resurgence on the part of Shitty. This isn't, however, a QB rating. I am rating teams on their stability at QB and how likely they are to make a change at QB. If Shitty agrees to the NIners contract offer, he will be back. If he doesn't, then he is truly a shitpile. I am guessing that he does and the franchise goes forward with Shitty until he fails and then they will bring in their second year guy, Colin Kaepernick. Therefore, they get a four.

The Threes

The teams that I have ranked as threes are potential players in the QB Scramble but they would be wildcards. I wouldn't expect any one of them in particular to make a change but I would expect at least one of them will. I don't think that made sense. Hmmmm. Alright, I wouldn't bet on any one of them in particular to make a change but if you asked if any of the would, then yes, I would make a bet that one of them does. Hope that cleared that up.

I have Sanchez, Fitzpatrick, the Hasselbeck/Locker combo, Gabbert, Palmer, Cassell, Tebow/Quinn and Ponder/Webb all rated as threes. The Raiders have invested too much in Palmer to make a move and they have no draft picks due to stupidity. Gabbert and Ponder are second year guys and you have to assume the Vikes and Jags will give them at least one more year before trying again in the draft. Cassell and Fitzpatrick are guys that you just have to see one more year to decide if they are legit franchise guys or not.

That leaves the Jets, Titans and Broncos as the interesting teams from this group. The Jets have in Sanchez, a guy that in three years as a starter after one year of starting in college, has been to two AFC championship games. For a historical perspective, a list of the QBs that have made the AFC title game as a Jets starter along with the number of times...

Mark Sanchez (twice)

Richard Todd (once)

Vinny Testaverde (once)

Add in pre-merger championship games

Joe Namath (once)

Hmmm...yeah. Good idea to give up on this guy. All he has done in three years has been to handle the New York media that has crushed so many others and make that franchise relevant in spite of a low mouthed and at times, embarrassing defensively oriented head coach and a confused failure of an offensive coordinator. If the Jets make a change at QB and/or release Mark Sanchez, then the Jets deserve their embarrassing franchise history. That said, I can't see the Jets making a change yet. Sanchez may not turn out to be a great QB but has earned at least one mulligan of a season.

Tebow. Just his name alone is a paragraph. I stand by my contention that the Broncos should rid themselves of the Tebow disease as soon as possible. Unfortunately, his fan base may storm Bronco headquarters and begin decapitating people if that happened. Unless someone just blew them away with a trade proposal (come on Jaguars, you know you need the Teabag), the Broncos are going to go into next year with one of the all time worst passers in the history of organized football. My prediction: Brady Quinn is the starter by week twelve next year followed by the Broncos desperately resigning Kyle Orton to finish the season. The Broncos schedule next year will be much more difficult than the SEC type powerpuff sched that the Teebs built his fame on. With an offseason to prepare, I would be surprised if the Broncos won a division game next year.

Finally, the Titans with Matt Hasselbeck and the future guy, Jake Locker. I can't actually see the Titans making a major move at QB. They seem to be set with the now guy and the future guy. But...the one thing I would love to see this offseason would be the Colts stupidly releasing Peyton Manning and Manning deciding to bring his talents to the country music capital of the world. The Titans have a solid defense and plenty of young, fast weapons on offense. Imagine Manning grinning as he makes the first four or five years of the Luck era in Indy just miserable as he tourtures the kid twice a year. Even better, Manning could strip away much of the Colts veteran core by bringing Garcon, Mathis and others with him. This is my number one 2012 NFL fantasy. Please make it happen, football gods!

Okay, getting tired...more coming later....